While most Americans are focused on the war in Iraq, China is rapidly expanding its’ military and Russia is attempting to regain Super Power status and influence.  Today, America remains the lone Super Power after the fall and break up of the Soviet Union almost two decades ago.  A Super Power is defined as a nation with the Political, Military and Economic presence to dictate, or strongly influence, world events.  It is clear China is quickly gaining ground toward this goal; recently we have seen Russia taking actions to recapture the title as well.  Is this a bad thing?  Not necessarily.  China has a rapidly expanding economy which they are using to build global military capability, secure energy resources and establish influence in Africa and other parts of the world.  However, I do not believe China wants direct confrontation with the U.S., but they do desire the power to counter U.S. influence and to become a peer on the world stage.  Ironically, America is funding this growth by buying most of our manufactured items from China.  Go into any Walmart, Home Depot or other large store and you will be hard pressed to find any item that was not produced in China.  The low prices are great for American consumers, but have really taken a toll on U.S. and other traditional trading partner countries’ industries and workers.  Many products lack quality, but in today’s disposable society, who cares?  Unfortunately, as we have recently seen, safety of these products has been overlooked.  As a young child, I remember hearing the same thing about Japanese products.  Of course today Japanese products set quality and safety standards in many industries; will we see the same evolution from China?  Possibly, but to do so, they will need to move further away from socialism and closer toward capitalist-styled employee incentives.  This is where it gets tricky.  The Communist party in China wants to have it both ways, increased standards of living, but still under communist control.  Russia has a separate motivation.  They see China rising quickly and feel left out and eager to regain a status they once enjoyed.  Russia is using their vast energy reserves to gain economic strength as well as selling military hardware to China, India, Iran and others.  Energy … specifically oil … is a common element amongst all powers.  China and India have rapidly growing oil consumption needs while Russia and Iran are building wealth supplying it.  This is a critical variable for America and the West to monitor, as we are dependent on oil for our continued wealth and power and competition for these finite resources will inevitably cause friction.  As Congressman Hall often states, energy was the driving force behind most wars and conflicts in the 20^th Century.  This is why it is important for the US to find alternate energy sources, including increased US oil and gas exploration to avoid continued reliance and direct confrontation over Middle East oil.

The majority of Russians long for the “good ole days” of Communism.  Like all people, they selectively remember the good and disregard the bad.  After almost two decades of promising reforms, it appears the Russian leaders are attempting to control rapidly spreading capitalism inside Russia by balancing democracy with socialism.  We also see Russia rebuilding their military and flexing its muscle, as recently demonstrated by resuming flying Bear reconnaissance aircraft off the US coasts and Blackjack supersonic bombers off European coastlines.  They may possess old aircraft and rusty ships today, but are building new generation fighters, bombers and ships to reestablish global presence and power. They are also challenging U.S. plans to deploy missile defense systems in former Eastern Block countries while at the same time demonstrating a new “super sized” conventional bomb.  However, unlike the former Soviet Union, I do not believe Russia is trying to spreading communism or world domination; like China, they want to be strong enough militarily and economically to counter America’s influence.

In short, America’s position as the sole Super Power could easily change.  This may not be entirely bad either.  As other countries become Super Powers, the U.S. may have the opportunity to shed some of the responsibility for managing world problems with others.  Of course, the US must be willing to do so and can not afford any further military, economic or political decline in order to retain our dominant position…  So what do I foresee in the next 25 years? … I see three Super Powers, increased competition for energy and trade disputes. However, I also see continued threats from Islamic fanatics, which affect all of us.  It’s not as grim as it sounds.  This common threat could out weigh serious friction between the Super Powers.  The growing radical Islamic populations in third world countries are as much of a problem for Russia and China as it is for us.  Russia has a decreasing ethnic Russian population and China has internal ethnic problems.  Both countries also have Muslim nations on their borders creating concerns for both.  The largest population increase happens to be in the worlds most depressed and poor countries. Radical Islam grows rapidly in these countries due to their populations’ lack of education, sophistication and general interaction with the rest of the world.  We must choose to cooperate and address this common challenge without, creating new conflicts amongst with each other directly, or using proxies as we all have in the past.  The worst scenario would be allowing our differences as Super Powers to drive Russia or China toward alliances with Islamic countries or become world power brokers between the West and Islamic nations or organizations.

  These are the some of the security and foreign affairs challenges facing the next President.  Too often, Americans vote for their President based on domestic issues and ignore external affairs.  Unfortunately, terrorism and competition from China and Russia will have a direct affect on domestic prosperity, freedom and possibly the future of the United States status and advantages as a Super Power.  These issues can not be taken lightly.  Don’t take your choice for President lightly or in a vacuum.

Ray Ivie

CAPT USN (Ret)

Heath, TX